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Kitsap Statistics • April 8, 2021

First Quarter Review for North Kitsap’s Market

by Leo Phillips

Our local real estate market is on the rise, and we had an interesting first quarter after the seasonal slowdown. We’ve compiled North Kitsap’s key market highlights so you can stay current with our local real estate market.

first quarter market stats

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Our area continues to have low inventory from the surge in demand with people moving away from the bigger cities.  As COVID-19 changes the way we work, there are still many eager buyers outnumbering sellers.  Some buyers are being outbid either by price or by all-cash offers.  Our local experts are here to help navigate this competitive market.

When you look at 2020’s first quarter compared to 2021’s first quarter, you can see that a similar growth trend after the holidays is repeated.  However, growth has slowed relative to last year, with much of North Kitsap’s inventory sold during the Covid boom.  And, our lower supply may indicate prices will rise. Get ready for the market to continue to heat up as we move from spring to summer.

sold pending graph

This strong seller’s market is driving us toward an affordability ceiling.  There is a growing sale price and listing divergence, shown in the chart below. Prices may soon be too high for many people to afford to buy a home here.  Sellers, however, continue to benefit from our inventory shortage, asking for higher prices. 

Affordability Issues and Market Insights

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, continues to track this affordability ceiling in his most recent Housing and Economic Update: “If the pace of home price growth continues, many households will start to be priced out” of what people can actually afford.  As Gardner points out, we need more supply, and we need home prices to drop to alleviate this market strain.

Unfortunately, that might not happen fast enough for many hopeful homebuyers to make their dream a reality. Gardner reminds us that the cost of materials, recent storms, and the current housing market prices have all added to the cost of building new homes. This, in turn, will add to the listing price.

Additionally, Gardner points out that mortgage rates have risen after “a jump in bond yields has led rates to spike” as the country re-opens and economic activity increases. The resulting potential inflation causes the 10-year treasury interest rates to rise in hopes of attracting more buyers.  However, it is still far below standard rates and shouldn’t be a concern for buyers right now.

Ultimately, it’s still a strong Seller’s Market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices continue to climb.

Windermere Kingston • March 3, 2021

New Agent Spotlight: Savannah Moran

by Kara Wyman
Savannah Moran quote Windermere Kingston

With a passion for real estate and the professionalism and positive energy to match, Savannah Moran is the kind of agent many buyers and sellers would love to work with here in North Kitsap. She’s new to our Windermere Kingston office, and we’re excited to feature her. Read on to find out about her interesting background, her professional experiences, and more.

What unique professional skills or experiences do you possess that enhance your abilities as a realtor?

In my previous career, I was a Landscape Architect. This design background really allows me to creatively see the inherent qualities in each property to help my clients see its full potential.

What personality traits do you think are important in this profession?

I think being friendly, kind, and super organized are the most important traits to have in real estate.

What drew you to real estate?

I absolutely LOVE the process of finding the perfect home for my clients! My skills preparing listings are sharp as well. Whether selling or listing, I really enjoy the collaborative process from start to finish.

Which areas do you serve?

I am primarily serving North Kitsap County. It has such incredible raw natural beauty; it makes each day an adventure.

Savannah Moran beach ocean

How long have you lived here?

We’ve only lived in Kingston for one year. My mother lives nearby in Indianola and we’ve absolutely fallen in love with visiting over the past seven years. We had to make the move from Seattle permanently and we are so happy we did last winter, just before COVID-19.

How are you involved in the community?

With COVID-19 taking over all human interactions, my community involvement has been so limited. But I can’t wait until things normalize in the near future. I hope to be involved with PTA and school volunteering as soon as possible.

savannah moran family

What made you decide to work with Windermere?

I have always known Windermere is the best possible agency to work with. When I got the opportunity to work with and be mentored by Catherine Arlen at Windermere Kingston, I did not hesitate to move my license immediately.

We’re so glad Savannah Moran has joined our Windermere community of professionals! If you’d like to connect with her, you can do so through her website and on Facebook.

Kitsap Statistics • January 26, 2021

Fourth Quarter Review and Our 2021 Market Forecast

by Leo Phillips
real estate model houses

Kingston’s North Kitsap market ended 2020 with a strong fourth quarter. Below are key stats to provide an overview of our local market, as well as insights and a 2021 market forecast from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

North Kitsap market stats

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Kingston is still a seller’s market as we head into winter. There aren’t as many houses for sale despite a high demand. Buyers, be aware that while the market is in the usual seasonal slowdown – it’s not as slow as expected given COVID-19. Many are leaving bigger cities, giving the advantage to sellers. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer.

In 2020’s fourth quarter, the average sale price in North Kitsap was up 21.3% year-over-year at $597K. Sale prices continue to hover close to listing prices, indicating strong demand.

sold homes graph North Kitsap

North Kitsap avg listing price

2021 Market Predictions

In his final Monday with Matthew video of 2020, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared his 2021 market forecast. He’s optimistic and for some good reasons.

First off, Gardners expects mortgage rates will not rise significantly on a local level, nor will they vary significantly throughout different regions across the U.S. Since mortgage rates are heavily tied to 10 year treasury maturity rates/yields, rates shouldn’t rise significantly until the entire market recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown.  Another great sign is that Gardner expects home sales will grow significantly, from 5.55% in 2020 to 5.93% in 2021. That’s “to a level we haven’t seen since 2006,” Gardner explains.  With the continuation of historically low mortgage rates and the consistent increase of home values, 2021 looks bright.

“No! There isn’t a housing bubble forming. But price growth will slow & sellers may feel like it’s a collapse … it isn’t collapsing, it’s just normalizing.”

Matthew reminds us that there are pitfalls to be wary of in this strong market. First and foremost: “we need more inventory.”  With the shuffling to new homes, and the huge wave of “first-time buyers [that] will continue to be a major player in the housing market,” many are making moves in a flood that will not persist. Buying during the pandemic will slowly settle. People are expected to stay in their homes longer, especially homeowners who have chosen to refinance. House values will rise due to the lack of supply, and that may price out many buyers who want to purchase in our area. 

Western Washington’s Market Report

For a big picture glance at how our local market compares, here are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 26.6% increase from Q4/2019, but 8.3% lower than Q3/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 37.3% lower than Q4/2019, and 31.2% lower than Q3/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 25% from Q4/2019, but 31% lower than Q3/2020
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
  • Average: $617,475 (up 17.4% from Q4/2019). This continues the trend of above-average appreciation of home values.
  • Interestingly, prices between Q3 and Q4 of 2020 only rose by 1%.  Is there a price ceiling we’re reaching?
  • Mortgage rates will stay competitive as the market continues to charge toward a price ceiling and potential affordability issues.
DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON
  • Average: 31 Days (16 days less than Q4 just one year ago)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 17

Conclusion

Yes, it’s a Seller’s Market once again.  Matthew Gardner says, “I am moving the needle even further in favor of sellers.”  Here’s why: Covid-19 continues to push homeowners to stay put while renters flock to the countryside.  The resulting limited supply has “caused the region’s housing market to be incredibly active.” Matthew does warn that there may be “affordability concerns” that could prevent some homebuyers from entering the market and eventually slowing growth.
2021 will continue the trend of working from home, which keeps demand high. This, in turn, will drive sales growth, while affordability barriers will balance our current runaway appreciation for home values.
Community • December 10, 2020

5 Fun Ways to Support Local Nonprofits This Season

by Kara Wyman

Looking to spread some holiday kindness and cheer? We have many wonderful local nonprofit organizations that provide a range of services throughout Kitsap County, and they could really use our help. While monetary donations are great, there are other ways to show your support. Here are some fun ideas to get you started.

1. Bid on a Christmas Tree to Support Village Green Community Center

The Festival of Trees is happening right now in Kingston and you can join in the fun! Check out the beautiful Christmas trees around town or online. Then bid on your favorite one. A number of local businesses decorated and donated these trees and we proudly donated one as well. Bidding ends on December 12th at noon so be sure to bid before it’s too late. Winning bidders will be able to claim their trees after the auction closes by arrangement with the tree’s donor. If you want to show your support but don’t need a tree, you have the option to donate your tree to a special family in the Boys and Girls Club of North Kitsap. The Club has provided services every day since the pandemic began, offering a place for kids to attend classes online through their make-shift classrooms. 

When:  December 5 – 12, 2020, beginning and ending at 12:00 PM

Where:  Online!  Register here.

2. Purchase Coffee to Support Homeless Youth

The Coffee Oasis is dedicated to supporting Kitsap’s struggling youth, cementing themselves as a cornerstone of the community.  This season, you can support those in need while getting your coffee fix at The Coffee Oasis. Your dollars will go towards a multifaceted approach to supporting and nurturing young people who have survived abuse, violence, poverty. Visit one of their cafes or their online store.

They also offer a Coffee Subscription, and 100% of the proceeds support their youth programs that offer housing, job training, and resources for homeless youth.

When: Purchase coffee online or during their business hours

Where:  All Coffee Oasis locations

3. Participate in a Pet Photo Contest to Support Kitsap Humane Society

Happy Pawlidays! Snap a photo of your pet dressed up and you can save lives through Kitsap Humane Society’s contest. Submit your holiday-themed photos online, and the winner will receive a gift basket from KHS. Dress up your pet in a costume or snap a classy holiday shot. The winner will be decided by votes! It’s just $5 to enter and $1 per vote. All proceeds will be donated to the furry friends under KHS care.

When:  December 14, 2020 at 6:00 AM – December 25, 2020, at 12:00 AM

Where:  Online

Cost:  $5 per photo submission, $1 per vote

4. Purchase a STEM or a Noon Year’s Eve Party Box to Support KiDiMu

The Kid’s Discovery Museum on Bainbridge Island is a wonderful nonprofit museum that provides creative, experiential learning opportunities for children. By giving the kids in your life one of these fun boxes, you’ll be supporting this great place. And, now more than ever, they need your support. In fact, one-third of nonprofit museums across the U.S. are at significant risk of permanently closing due to the impact of COVID-19.

The STEM Subscription Box is $50/month and offers K-2 educational activities that are tied to themes like space and the environment. All project materials are included. 

When:  Anytime

Where:  Online

The Noon Year’s Eve Party Box is $25 for members and $40 for non-members. It provides everything you need to celebrate the new year at noon instead of at midnight so that your little one(s) can be part of the fun. There’s a firework craft, confetti, and more! 

When:  Last day to ship is Dec. 15, 2020; available for pick-up from 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM from Dec. 22 – 29, 2020

Where:  Online

5. Enjoy Winter in the Woods and Support the YWCA

With over 150 acres to enjoy, the Bloedel Reserve is always a treat, and “Winter in the Woods” is a great outdoor experience for all ages. And, you can support the YWCA Kitsap County while you’re out enjoying the Reserve. Just bring canned food to contribute to their donation drive. Then stroll across their beautiful grounds and spot cleverly crafted snow people. They also have a Wishing Tree with individually wrapped wooden ornaments and pencils that you can use to add your wishes for the new year. This event is included with admission. Tickets must be purchased in advance online via timed tickets. Canned food donations are not required but are requested.

When: Dec. 5, 2020 – Jan. 3, 2021, open Tuesdays-Sundays, 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM

Closed Mondays, Christmas Day, and New Years Day

Where: Bloedel Reserve, Bainbridge Island

If you know of other local nonprofits that have events going on, let us know on our new Facebook page: Windermere Sound Living. We would love to spread the news. Happy Holidays and here’s to a healthy, joyful new year!

 

Community • November 23, 2020

Heronswood: Incredible Beauty and a Unique History

by Windermere Kingston
heronswood garden

Nestled in North Kitsap, is Heronswood, a botanical paradise. Originally brought to life in 1987 by Horticulturalist Dan Hinkley and his husband, architect Robert L. Jones, the garden has grown to more than 15 acres of fantastic flora from all around the world. Heronswood is an internationally recognized treasure in the Pacific Northwest, even garnering the attention of Martha Stewart. 

Hinkley’s dream of starting a small nursery, where he could introduce rare and hardy plants to the community, has become a de facto landmark in Kitsap County. He spent the next 20 years developing the estate and traveling worldwide on plant-hunting trips to expand the garden. In 2000, Hinkley and Jones sold the business to W. Atlee Burpee Company. But in 2006 the company filed for bankruptcy. The estate laid dormant until 2012 when it was sold to the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe. 

Together with Hinkley, the S’Klallam Tribe has breathed new life into the garden through a series of tremendous restoration efforts. The Heronswood Garden has become a place for special events, plant sales, and educational programs that speak to the heritage of the garden and the S’Klallam Tribe. 

S’Klallam History

For centuries, the S’Klallam Tribe occupied the shores of Strait Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and Puget Sound. S’Klallam means “strong people”. Although their culture was almost lost after European contact, the S’Klallam have maintained agency over their heritage and traditions. 

Over the past few decades, tribal leaders have made significant efforts to strengthen their community through economic development, establishing an Economic Development Authority to support local businesses through the administration of federal grants.

The acquisition of Heronswood Garden has provided an opportunity for all community members to work together to maintain this local treasure. Since 2012, members of Heronswood staff, the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe, the Heronswood Garden Steering Committee, and dozens of very skilled, dedicated volunteers have teamed up to shape the future of Heronswood. 

Heronswood sign and the S’Klallam Orca Crest. Photos by Leo Phillips.

Legacy and Future

After 35 years and two ownership changes, Heronswood continues to thrive and flourish. It offers an abundance of resources and events for community members to learn more about horticulture. Hinkley, now Director Emeritus, creates and leads many of these events himself. Field Notes is the official blog of Heronswood, where Hinkley and Assistant Director Dr. Ross Bayton write educational blog posts about their experiences foraging around the world. They also have Nature Notes, a video series that features new Garden Director, Dr. Patrick Mcmillan. In this series, you can learn fascinating information about Pacific Northwest shrubs, trees, and more.

Heronswood Nature Notes

Photo from Heronswood’s Nature Notes video series.

Lunchbreak Lectures is an online series of classes that take place virtually over Zoom. Hinkley and Bayton teach these classes. Heronswood also offers pre-scheduled tours lead by experienced garden professionals.

In adherence to current COVID-19 guidelines, masks and facial covers are mandatory. Tourists will be able to use a whisper headset system to listen to the tour guide while maintaining six feet from one another. 

Next spring, Heronswood will be dedicating a stumpery, an artistic display of tree stumps, that recounts the history of the S’Klallam Tribe with the local timber industry. Additionally, they will be adding plant species used in traditional dyeing and weaving for tribal artists to access. The S’Klallam Tribe and Hinkley are ushering in a new chapter for Heronswood, bringing people from all over Kitsap County and beyond to experience the unparalleled beauty of the botanical garden and S’Klallam Tribe.

Community • November 20, 2020

The Unique Charm of Kingston and Beyond

by Kara Wyman
kingston downtown

The quaint community of Kingston sits just a ferry ride away from Seattle and Edmonds, yet it retains the easygoing energy of the Kitsap Peninsula.

A Scenic Home for a Connected Life

Whether you’re starting a family or looking to live near a big city but not in one, Kingston is a wonderful place to put down roots. Kingston’s history as a town dates back to 1890. That’s when the Kingston Land and Improvement Company was established by Seattle investors. They wanted the area to become a “resort and hideaway for Seattle folk”.

Stepping off the ferry, the charm of Kingston’s downtown surrounds, starting with a greeting from the lovely welcome mural.  A five-minute stroll through the tree-lined street reveals the lovely little Paris feel of J’aime les Crêpes Crêperie and the robust food and drink options at places like Kingston Alehouse and d’Vine Wines. Venture up the hill to the rustic, century-old farmhouse of the Mossback Cafe for locally-sourced, eclectic meals. 

Though Kingston is small, there are many options for a good cup of coffee as well as a range of delicious treats, thanks to places like The Coffee Oasis, The Cup & Muffin, Sweet Life Cakery, and Borrowed Kitchen Bakery. You could literally eat your way through town and then enjoy a movie at the now nationally known Firehouse Theater. Then stroll down Saltair Beach or go play some golf at the beautiful White Horse Golf Club. 

“Kingston is still a small friendly town that is full of people that greet one another when you run into each other in the store or about town,” says Windermere Kingston’s Managing Broker, Jet Woelke. “Locals will pitch in and help neighbors in need or pull together if the community needs something. It’s amazing the community involvement!”

Saltair beach Kingston

Saltair Beach Park, Kingston, WA. Photo by Leo Phillips

 

Kingston is connected to exciting, culturally rich areas to explore. Just a short drive away are the towns of Indianola, Suquamish, Hansville, and Port Gamble. Each has its own distinct feel, with unique activities for all ages.

Adventure Surrounds

Indianola

What is now a quaint seaside community and friendly artists’ haven, Indianola was founded in 1916 as a summer/weekend community only reached by steamboat. Since those humble beginnings, even big names such as Martha Stewart have discovered its serenity. Stewart knows the Director Emeritus of Heronswood Garden, Dan Hinkley. In 2013, Stewart visited Indianola and Heronswood Garden in nearby Kingston. An incredible botanical garden, Heronswood is maintained by the Port Gamble S’Klallam Foundation and the garden’s management team. There’s lush beauty all around North Kitsap, and Indianola is one picturesque place to enjoy it. 

Indianola Pier

Indianola Pier. Photo by Leo Phillips.

Suquamish

Fishing has long been a focal point here. For thousands of years, the Suquamish and their ancestors inhabited this region, and fishing was traditionally their most important source of food. It still remains important for many Tribes today. Visit the reservation town of Suquamish to tour the beautiful Suquamish Museum and pay your respects at the gravesite of Chief Seattle.

Suquamish also offers parks and some popular places like Sully’s Bistro & Bar, which often serves locally sourced seafood. Realtor Christine Todd loves the beautiful views there. “Grab a seat on one of the beach logs at Old Man House and watch the marine traffic go by.” 

Chief Seattle's Grave

Chief Seattle’s Gravesite in Suquamish, WA. Photo by Leo Phillips.

Hansville

Spend a day at the famous Point No Point Beach in Hansville, featuring the oldest lighthouse on Puget Sound.  It just so happens to also be one of the best Chinook Salmon fishing holes in all of Puget Sound. You can join the growing trend of kayak salmon fishing. The quiet, friendly town of Hansville also has some nice places to stop in for a bite like North Point Market. This deli offers fresh food, coffee, local produce, and gifts. 

Point No Point lighthouse sunset

Point No Point Lighthouse. Photo by Leo Phillips.

Port Gamble

Visit nearby Port Gamble, an old company town, for a foray into cute, turn-of-the-century culture.  Growing from a bustling logging town to a popular tourist destination, it’s now famous for its New England style homes, its hiking and biking trails, and paranormal activity legends.  It’s also a popular wedding venue and has even served as a backdrop for Hollywood films.

 

Port Gamble aerial shot

Port Gamble, WA. Photo by Leo Phillips.

Welcome Home

Gorgeous vistas, rich areas to explore, thriving small businesses, and great schools – what’s not to love? The Kingston area offers a range of sights, activities, and much more. If you’re looking to buy in the area, our local experts would be happy to show you around. 

Kitsap Statistics • Windermere Kingston • October 27, 2020

North Kitsap’s Market: Third Quarter Review and Forecast

by Kara Wyman
North Kitsap market graph q3

North Kitsap’s market had a very strong third quarter. We’ve compiled key stats below to provide a comprehensive review of our market, as well as insights and predictions from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

Our Strong Seller’s Market

It’s a strong seller’s market here in North Kitsap. Inventory remains low while demand is high. In our third quarter, the median sale price was up 9% year-over-year at $508K. Buyers should be aware that multiple offer situations have become more common in our area. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash buyer.

north kitsap market graph q3

north kitsap inventory graph q3

north kitsap market stats q3

Market Predictions

Although mortgage rates remain historically low and demand is high, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, has some concerns about how this may impact real estate down the road. “We may be heading towards a period where we see houses turn over at a far slower pace as we stay in our homes for longer than ever…this could be a problem as it leads to persistently low levels of inventory for sale, which itself could lead to prices continuing to rise at above-average rates and that would further hit affordability.” As for mortgage rates, Gardner does not expect them to rise significantly any time soon. However, he says, “We should all be aware that there could be consequences to very low rates”.

Western Washington Review

Let’s zoom out a bit and look at our area. Below are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report provided by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 11.6% increase from Q3/2019, and 45.9% higher than Q2/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 41.7% lower than Q3/2019, but up 1.6% from Q2/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 29% from Q2/2020

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

  • Average: $611,793 (up 17.1% from Q3/2019). Low mortgage rates and limited inventory are clearly pushing prices up.
  • Prices will continue to increase as long as mortgage rates and inventory levels stay low. If this continues to be the case, affordability issues will become more apparent in many markets.

DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON

  • Average: 36 days (an average of 4 fewer days than in Q2/2020 and 2 fewer days than in Q3/2019)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 20

Conclusion

In Gardner’s Western Washington Report, he states that, although we have a strong seller’s market that is very buoyant, he’s “starting to see affordability issues increase in many areas—not just in the central Puget Sound region—and this is concerning. Perhaps the winter will act to cool the market, but something is telling me we shouldn’t count on it.”

 

 

 

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